TLDR
  • Get a fast, one-page alert to detect local signals that could affect installs and SKU availability.
  • Use a simple 4-part scoring rubric (Credibility, Immediacy, $Impact, Decision priority) to decide quickly.
  • Keep credibility current with lightweight Bayesian updates as new signals arrive.
  • If expected value (EV) is positive and quarterly sign-off criteria are met, trigger a pre-commit action.
  • Lock pricing or capacity when EV > 0 to protect margins within your quarterly budget cycle.
  • Rely on a timestamped, machine-readable event feed for fast, auditable decisions.
  • Use short postmortems to improve the rubric and thresholds for next quarter.

Overview & Lexicon

Short guide. Easy steps. Clear rules for local events, timely intel, and supply issues.

Rapid‑Response
near‑real‑time operational alerts
Timely Intel
verified, timestamped sources
Supply‑Chain Disruption
measurable availability/lead‑time impact
Dispatcher monitoring alerts on a tablet as supply boxes sit nearby in landscape orientation.. Framed by Tima Miroshnichenko
Dispatcher monitoring alerts on a tablet as supply boxes sit nearby in landscape orientation.. Framed by Tima Miroshnichenko
18%

TL;DR

Follow a short checklist to detect, score, and act on local signals. Use a one‑page alert to move fast. Use a numeric rubric and a simple expected‑value rule to decide pre‑commitments.

Lock pricing or capacity when EV > 0 and quarterly sign‑off criteria are met. This rule keeps actions tied to budgets and reduces indecision.

Includes: one‑page alert template, scoring rubric, Bayesian update method, and an EV decision rule for quick pre‑commit blocks.

Event Feed (Live via SSE / WebSocket)

Feeds arrive as Server‑Sent Events or WebSocket messages. Each item includes a machine‑readable . Items are short and actionable.

Permit Window: Inspection Scheduled

Local authority schedules an inspection. This can delay installs. Typical durations and likely impacts are listed below.

Typical review and inspection timing with likely downstream impact
Stage Typical Range Common Impact
Permit review 2–7 days Scheduling pause; crew reassignments
Inspection window 1–3 days Short delay to start date
Reschedule effort 0–5 days Overtime or cost shift
Net sequencing impact 3–10 business days Project completion slip; potential revenue delay
Considerations: check contractor availability, parts staged for install, and alternative crew sequencing options. Search terms: permit delay, inspection window, crew reallocation.
Quick recommended actions
  • Confirm inspection slot and expected outcome.
  • Re‑sequence nondependent installs where possible.
  • Notify finance if expected delay exceeds sign‑off thresholds for pre‑commit blocks.

Plant Downtime Notice (Vendor)

Supplier reports a maintenance outage. This creates an availability‑risk alert. The team should evaluate critical SKUs and consider short pre‑commit actions.

  • Reported outage: 7–14 days.
  • Immediate step: tag affected SKUs as limited availability.
  • Decision trigger: if expected delay causes > threshold revenue risk, initiate capacity block.
Recommended triage flow
  1. Identify critical SKUs and open orders. Time‑stamp each check.
  2. Run expected‑value check for each SKU (see rubric section).
  3. If EV > 0 and finance + ops approve, place pre‑commit block for needed quantity.

Intel Briefs & Prioritization

One page. Short fields. Each brief has: summary, affected SKUs, schedule impact, recommendation, owner, and sign‑off criteria.

Numeric scoring rubric (use for each alert)
Metric Scale Guidance
Credibility 0–5 Score by source reliability and corroboration.
Immediacy 0–5 How soon the effect shows up (0 = months, 5 = immediate).
$‑Impact band A / B / C A: <$10k, B: $10–100k, C: >$100k
Decision priority 1–4 Computed from scores; 1 = act now, 4 = monitor only
Notes: keep the rubric simple. Search keywords: credibility rubric, immediacy scoring, expected value pre‑commit. Use this table as a quick index for future audits.
Bayesian updating (simple)

Start with a prior probability for a signal. Each new report adjusts the probability using source weight and recency. The team updates the credibility score and recomputes expected value.

Formula (plain): EV = (probability of disruption × cost of delay) − cost to pre‑commit.

Example (simple numbers):

  • Prior disruption chance: 30% (0.30).
  • Cost of delay: $40,000.
  • Pre‑commit cost: $5,000.
  • EV = 0.30 × 40,000 − 5,000 = 12,000 − 5,000 = 7,000 → positive → consider lock.

When new evidence arrives, multiply weight by recency to update the probability. Keep calculations simple so reviewers can confirm quickly.

Decision rules should use explicit thresholds and a short pre‑mortem to expose risks. This reduces bias and speeds sign‑off.

Supply‑Chain Impact & Actions

Taxonomy: availability risk, transit delay, supplier capacity. Each alert maps to an action set. Actions are simple and testable.

  • Price holds — secure quoted prices for a short window.
  • Capacity blocks — reserve production capacity when EV is positive.
  • Expedited routing — reserve faster transit for critical parts.
  • Micro‑campaigns — small local promotions to shift demand away from constrained SKUs.

Automated monitoring sources to consider: regulatory filings and time‑stamped vendor notices. Correlate timestamps from news and market moves to validate signals before high cost actions.

Use simple risk visuals for quick decisions:

65% risk

Postmortem & Continuous Improvement

After outcomes, run a short postmortem. Log missed signals. Update priors and rubric thresholds. Add watch sources when warranted.

Postmortem checklist (short)
  1. Record signal timestamps and final outcome.
  2. Update the credibility prior for each source.
  3. Adjust band thresholds and sign‑off criteria for future cycles.
  4. Convert validated learnings into pre‑commit block rules for the next quarter.

Operational note: every feed item must expose a machine‑readable and support SSE/WebSocket updates. Owners should keep sign‑off rules tied to budgets for auditability.

Rapid‑Response alerts, Timely Intel, Supply‑Chain Resilience, SKU Availability, Local Event Signals, Pre‑commit Blocks, EV (Expected Value) Decision, Pricing Locks, Capacity Blocks, Expedited Routing, Quick Decision Checklist, One‑Page Alert, Impulse Purchases, Budget Alignment, Quarterly Sign‑off, Data‑Driven Sign‑off, Bayesian Updating, Credibility Scoring, Real‑Time Feeds, Actionable Insights, Postmortems & Continuous Improvement, Risk Visualization, Lead‑Time Reduction, Vendor Notices, Installation Sequencing